06 / Gas offer pricing / Natural gas supply
Gas Offer Planner
A guided, supplier-side planner that turns a customer’s gas use, a dated market snapshot, the supplier cost stack and a credit check into a clearer natural gas offer, with two anonymized PDFs at the end.
Live site / the planner
01 / The question
Can a gas offer be built from inputs you can see?
Pricing natural gas for a commercial or industrial customer means combining gas use, weather, market prices, supplier costs and credit. The planner takes them in order, shows each allowance, and keeps anything not yet known as pending, so a partial subtotal is never read as a complete quote.
02 / What the planner does
Six steps, one consistent set of inputs.
Every calculation and both PDFs run on the visitor’s device. Entries are kept only for the page session; refreshing resets them.
| Step | What it does |
|---|---|
| 01 · Customer | An internal label (it stays on the device and is left out of both PDFs), a city (Tulsa, Omaha or Columbus, Ohio) and a 12- or 24-month term. This version starts in January 2027 and uses fixed monthly gas blocks. |
| 02 · Gas & weather | Annual gas in MMBtu, not dollars: the estimated benchmark of 6,100 MMBtu or a user-entered annual total. The weather assumption is kept separate as a change in heating degree days (HDD); the default is +20%. |
| 03 · Market prices | Henry Hub plus the matching regional basis for every delivery month, in USD/MMBtu, with a valuation date and source. A bundled Tulsa 2027 reference dated October 29, 2026 is indicative, not an executable quote. |
| 04 · Supplier costs | Fuel percentage and convention, supplier fee, financing, residual risk and credit allowance, each in USD per customer-block MMBtu, with target margin kept apart. A blank means pending; zero is entered only on purpose. |
| 05 · Credit | A score from the current ratio, debt / EBITDA and EBIT / interest, built from statement amounts or typed-in ratios. With no statements the credit stays pending and payment protection is still required. |
| 06 · Review & PDF | Five tabs (Offer, Financial plan, Hedge & risk, Credit summary, Sources), then a customer proposal and an internal financial review. The offer can also be sent to the “Test existing offer” mode as a stress test. |
03 / What the review shows
An offer, and what is still open.
| Item | Result |
|---|---|
| Weighted Henry Hub + basis | $2.8171/MMBtu |
| Target margin | $0.2000/MMBtu |
| Partial subtotal | $3.0171/MMBtu |
| Proposed blocks vs modeled usage | 6,588.0 MMBtu each |
| Fixed-block subtotal | $19,876.64 |
| Target contribution, before unmodeled costs | $1,317.60 |
Fuel, supplier fee, financing, residual risk and credit allowance are still pending in this example, so the review says it is not a complete supplier quote. Target contribution is not net profit, and transport and taxes are not included.
04 / Design choices
Transparent, private and honest about gaps.
Customer names and private source notes never reach either PDF. The customer proposal shows the offer and its conditions; the internal review adds costs, financial planning, hedges and credit. Regional basis is a delivery-route proxy, other cities and 2028 need their own prices, and the planner says so where it matters.